how do you like your blue-eyed boy, mister death? The legend of the blue-eyed Quarterback

I find it amazing how it sometimes takes the oddest combination of events to bring into focus that which seems so obvious once you realize it. This happened to me some time ago while re-reading a favorite story for the first time in 15 years, while watching a highlights show on the NFL network. This type of multi-tasking isn’t a new phenomena for me; however, on this particular day I just happened to be reading An Occurrence at Owl Creek Bridge by Ambrose Bierce, and watching a show on the top 10 Quarterbacks of all time on NFLNetwork when I came across my most innocuous yet interesting of theories with the reading of this line:

“The man in the water saw the eye of the man on the bridge gazing into his own through the sights of the rifle. He observed that it was a gray eye and remembered having read that gray eyes were keenest, and that all famous marksmen had them.”

Just about that time I looked up into the piercing eyes of Joe Montana, then Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Terry Bradshaw and said, “Check it out, they all have blue eyes!” Thus began the theory of the blue-eyed quarterback. Is it an important theory? Only if you’re a gambler or a NFL scout or coach. Still, the study of a general hypothesis like this could produce interesting results in the fields of medicine, genetics, sociology and human history. All it took was a co-affinity for Civil War literature and Football and wahlah!: A startling epiphany.

To all those in charge of player personel in the NFL: While a strong arm may win its share of games, if you want a Superbowl victory, or a Hall of Fame QB to make your career, find yourself a blue eyed boy.

The numbers are in your favor. Way in your favor. In fact, there is more truth the statement “Check it out, they all have blue eyes” then I ever imagined when saying it. It turns out that blue eyes are as important as a shotgun arm, mobility, release time, height or any other quarterback measurable.

Let’s look at some numbers and facts:

Blue is the second most common eye color behind brown.

“A 2002 study found the prevalence of blue eye color among Whites in the United States to be 33.8%” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_color) If you include other ethnicities the percentage drops considerably; however, since there has been obvious racial issues surrounding the position of NFL quarterback in particular, and since I wanted the numbers to stack up as either accurate or against my blue-eyed theory, I am restricting this statistical set to “whites in the US.”

The percentage of Superbowls won by a blue eyed quarterback is 79% (if we include the apparently Hazel eyes of Jim McMahon and Mark Rypien as brown).

The prevalence of blue eye color among Hall of Fame NFL Quarterbacks is an astonishing 91.3% (21 of 23, Warren Moon and Otto Graham the only exceptions) – add guaranteed blue-eyed Hall of Famers Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and it becomes even higher.

Sociology can account for some variation in numbers, but it can not account for a variation this great (34% - 91%).

In fact, out the 42 superbowls played, only one featured two starting brown-eyed quarterbacks (superbowl 34, Kurt Warner vs. Steve McNair)

Assuming a 34% blue-eyed prevalence, the expected percentage of two blue-eyed quarterbacks playing each other in the Superbowl is only 11%. (That means that if every quarterback was a “white living in the US” we should still only see 5 of the 42 Superbowls played between two blue eyed quarterbacks.)

Percentage of Superbowls actually played between two blue-eyed quarterbacks: 52%

(22 of 42)

I recently read on ScienceDaily.com (January 2008) new research which supposedly shows that blue eye color is caused by a genetic mutation that occurred in a single individual about 6-10,000 years ago. All blue eyed people are related to a single ancestor! Maybe that ancestor had a riffle arm as well. Or maybe the mechanism restricting the amount of melanin (the stuff that causes color) in the iris also allows the eye to react to light and color differently creating better depth perception or ability to focus at high speeds or longer distance. I don’t know. I would like to though. I, personally, do not have blue eyes but would like to know what the world looks like through blue for a day.

Another interesting fact is that blue-eyes react differently to the drugs doctors use to dilate the eyes, showing an obvious physiological difference in how the eye functions and not just appearance. Blue eyes tend to dilate twice as fast and stay dilated longer than darker eye colors when exposed to the same dose of dilation drops.

An experiment with sharpshooters in the Canadian Army in 1812 showed target color played a large roll in accuracy, red being the easiest hit and grey being the hardest to hit. (http://www.militaryheritage.com/hamilton.htm) This smartly led to the change of many of the armies uniforms from red to gray (the original camouflage). Oddly enough, 3 of the 8 superbowls won by brown-eyed QB’s were Raiders QBs, the only grey team in the NFL. The opposing quarterbacks, all blue eyes, threw at least two interceptions in each of those games (perhaps due to a miss-judgment of the defenders depth, speed or position). Furthermore, Lester Hayes, an Oakland raider, holds the record for interceptions in a full-season with 18 including 5 in the playoffs. Is it cheating to play in camo?

Perhaps some of the modern day prejudices and knocks against black quarterbacks (think Rush Limbaugh) have been unknowingly due to eye color and not skin color. Just a thought.

So, how can one overcome this affliction of brown eyes and still win the Superbowl? You could be the one brown-eye to play another brown-eye in the big game like Kurt Warner. You could have a record setting defense and a hall of fame running back like Jim McMahon and Jim Plunkett, or the best O-line ever and opposing quarterbacks who disintegrate into throwing 4 picks each like Mark Rypien or Doug Williams (a coked up Timmy Smith doesn’t hurt), or the brown-eyed QB replacing the blue-eyed starter and squeaking one out by a missed field goal like Jeff Hostetler (playing perennial loser Buffalo with LT on your side doesn’t hurt either). So it can be done, just not without some help.

The Hall of Fame? Unless your name is Warren or you have a time machine…

Which brings us to the real questions of how blue eyes do what they do? Is it field of color, depth perception, speed of focus, or what? How did coaches and commentators not realize something so obvious? How did Eli beat Tom Brady? What would it take for Romo or McNabb to share the fate of the other brown-eyed superbowl victors?

I end with this poem by e. e. cummings about the best sharp-shooter of them all.

Buffalo Bill's

        defunct

               who used to

               ride a watersmooth-silver

                                        stallion

        and break onetwothreefourfive pigeonsjustlikethat

                                                         Jesus

        he was a handsome man

                             and what i want to know is

        how do you like your blueeyed boy

        Mister Death